Three down, three to go for Team USA. After cruising through the group stage with an undefeated 3-0 record and a dominant +64 point differential, the Americans have earned the No. securing the No. 1 seed in the knockout stage of the 2024 Olympics and are now halfway to clinching a gold medal in Paris..
Naturally, the initial three games were the easier part of their journey. This is where things get tougher. Only eight of the 12 teams in the tournament are still standing, and unlike the group stage, there’s no room for error. If you lose, you’re out. Team USA’s first single-elimination game will be against Brazil, a team they haven’t faced in nearly 30 years. Team USA has a 9-0 record against Brazil in the Olympics, but their last matchup was in 1996. Even LeBron James wasn’t playing back then, so this is a new challenge against a fresh group of Brazilian players.
So, what can Team USA expect against Brazil? Here are our top predictions for Tuesday’s game:
Team USA vs. Brazil
The final two games Team USA plays in the Olympics may be challenging, but this one shouldn’t be. Brazil was defeated by double digits against both France and Germany.. They needed to shoot an impressive 61% from 3-point range to beat Japan. Honestly, Brazil advanced mainly because of their favorable draw. If they had been in Group A, the toughest group, they likely would have gone 0-3 against those teams. Spain is a stronger team but had a tougher draw. They finished just one point behind Brazil in point differential. Brazil’s only current NBA player is Gui Santos, who is on a non-guaranteed contract with the Warriors. The talent gap is clear. Prediction: Team USA -27.
When Brazil played France in the group stage, they started strong and scored 23 points in the first quarter. However, they only managed 22 points in the next two quarters combined after Rudy Gobert came back from early foul trouble and Victor Wembanyama took over defensively. This gives us a clue about what might happen when Team USA puts their best defenders on the court. Sure, Brazil might get hot from three-point range again, but they lack the ability to consistently score inside against elite defenders. Their point guard is 41 years old. Prediction: Under 184.5 points.
Player Spotlight: Bruno Caboclo
Watch out for an inflated line! Bruno Caboclo didn’t score at all against France. He only scored six points against Germany. Then he scored 33 points against Japan, a team that didn’t win any group games. Now, his scoring line is set at 14.5 points against Team USA. Caboclo played 105 NBA games and surpassed this total only five times. Scoring against Japan and scoring against NBA superstars are completely different challenges. There’s some hype around Caboclo because NBA fans recognize his name and remember Fran Fraschilla’s famous “two years away from being two years away” comment from ten years ago. They might have seen his recent 33-point game. But that was a rare performance. Prediction: Caboclo Under 14.5 Points.
